Monday, March 8, 2010

My life in the Zoo: Legacy Pt.12- Going Infinite?

So I decided to take my fully powered list to the SciFi Weekly Legacy event, and see what happens. The new prize structure was just too much to pass up. This is the final list I used for the event.

Kavu Predator x4
Kird Ape x4
Tarmogoyf x4
Qasali Pridemage x4
Wild Nacatl x4
Grim Lavamancer x3

Invigorate x3
Lightning Bolt x4
Sylvan Library x2
Swords to Plowshares x3
Punishing Fire x3
Umezawa's Jitte x2

Arid Mesa x4
Grove of the Burnwillows x4
Plateau x3
Savannah x2
T-A-I-G-A x2
Windswept Heath
Wooded Foothills
Forest, Mountain, Plains 1 each.
Pithing Needle x4
Tormad's Crypt x2
Relic of Progenitus x3
Krosen Grip x2
Pyroclasm x3
Wind Shards
I really like this list, and it just hammers home how good Goyf is for this deck. Wing Shards seems like on-color tech against Progenitus, which appears to be a growing segment of the meta, both local and regional. I may be running a bit to much graveyard hate, but with Reanimator one of the top decks in the meta, and dredge always a possible threat, it seems reasonable for the moment. I really didn't expect to see Richard, there, but he and ANT made the appearance. I really need to get a couple of Teegs.

We had 9 players in total, so four rounds would make the day. Round one I faced Wes's W/B griefer deck, but I was able to eventually play around it, and get there in 2. Round two put me across from one of our new players, Chris, who was piloting Hatfield's Zoo build. Having spent some time observing this deck, and speaking with it's designer last weekend, I knew my deck (which is tuned against the mirror) had a real leg up. I have to admit that Chris's reputation as a Legacy player, and writer but me on the edge of tilt. Despite several play mistakes on my part, I was able to put it away in two.

Round three put me across from the other undefeated player of the day, Damion piloting CounterTop Progenitus. Man I hate this list! game one Progenitus ate my face, but I was able to put him off the combo long enough, that I was pretty ahead of the curve racing the deck. I had three turns to try and top deck the answer I needed to win, and just couldn't get there. If my Sylvan Library had resolved earlier in the game, I may have pulled it out. Maybe Hatfield is right about the 3rd copy? I swear I think Damion keeps Path in his shoe!? Game two my side board tech bought me the extra turns I needed to get there, and my burn kept him of Progenitus. Game three was another tight one. I literally won a single turn ahead, staring a lethal Progenitus in the face. If Damion hadn't fetched out of desperation, it may have gone the other way, as I was about out of gas. Never saw the Wing Shards, but I need more copies.

The players took a vote to end, as we had a clear winner, or continue. I lost that vote, and we went to round four. I drew Dr. Luudes, with his awesome Dream Halls deck. We did some quick math and determined that even if he won, which was my expected out come, He would most likely end up in 3rd, and me in second off of tie breakers. On the other hand, if we ID'ed, I'd have a lock on 1st, and he would almost surely slide into 4th on points/breakers. Since 3rd and 4th have the same support, we took the ID. Math for the Win!

Roanoke Results

Prior to the event I did a lot of work, attempting to predict the meta. it's difficult to predict an event this large, due to the shear volume of factors, but all and all I think I did pretty good.

My Predictions

My Data

Richmond Field, Top 16 Deck Lists

First off, I think I really nailed Merfolk, and it's conversion rate was even higher then I expected. Zoo also showed up in droves, and converted much higher then I think anyone really expected. I had observed this in the local meta, but was surprised to see the same trend in the broader field. Hatfield's list appeared to be the superior one, and is worth spending some time on.

CounterTop was in the room about like I expected, but Progenitus builds were clearly the supperior build, having much higher conversion rates then expected. I was really wrong on that call, and I'm going to have to adjust my game plan accordingly.

Loam was clearly not the sleeper of the event. Not only did it show up significantly less then I expected, but it didn't convert. Reanimator was definitely the sleeper on the event, showing up nearly 3x more then predicted, and converted even higher. Most of my other calls were pretty on point, but equally inconsequential.

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