Kavu Predator x4
Kird Ape x4
Qasali Pridemage x4
Wild Nacatl x4
Grim Lavamancer x3
Lightning Bolt x4
Sylvan Library x2
Swords to Plowshares x3
Punishing Fire x3
Umezawa's Jitte x2
Arid Mesa x4
Grove of the Burnwillows x4
Forest, Mountain, Plains 1 each.
Pithing Needle x4
Tormad's Crypt x2
Relic of Progenitus x3
Krosen Grip x2
We had 9 players in total, so four rounds would make the day. Round one I faced Wes's W/B griefer deck, but I was able to eventually play around it, and get there in 2. Round two put me across from one of our new players, Chris, who was piloting Hatfield's Zoo build. Having spent some time observing this deck, and speaking with it's designer last weekend, I knew my deck (which is tuned against the mirror) had a real leg up. I have to admit that Chris's reputation as a Legacy player, and writer but me on the edge of tilt. Despite several play mistakes on my part, I was able to put it away in two.
The players took a vote to end, as we had a clear winner, or continue. I lost that vote, and we went to round four. I drew Dr. Luudes, with his awesome Dream Halls deck. We did some quick math and determined that even if he won, which was my expected out come, He would most likely end up in 3rd, and me in second off of tie breakers. On the other hand, if we ID'ed, I'd have a lock on 1st, and he would almost surely slide into 4th on points/breakers. Since 3rd and 4th have the same support, we took the ID. Math for the Win!
Prior to the event I did a lot of work, attempting to predict the meta. it's difficult to predict an event this large, due to the shear volume of factors, but all and all I think I did pretty good.
Richmond Field, Top 16 Deck Lists
First off, I think I really nailed Merfolk, and it's conversion rate was even higher then I expected. Zoo also showed up in droves, and converted much higher then I think anyone really expected. I had observed this in the local meta, but was surprised to see the same trend in the broader field. Hatfield's list appeared to be the superior one, and is worth spending some time on.
CounterTop was in the room about like I expected, but Progenitus builds were clearly the supperior build, having much higher conversion rates then expected. I was really wrong on that call, and I'm going to have to adjust my game plan accordingly.
Loam was clearly not the sleeper of the event. Not only did it show up significantly less then I expected, but it didn't convert. Reanimator was definitely the sleeper on the event, showing up nearly 3x more then predicted, and converted even higher. Most of my other calls were pretty on point, but equally inconsequential.