Kavu Predator x4
Kird Ape x4
Tarmogoyf x4 (Woolly Thoctar x3)
Qasali Pridemage x4
Wild Nacatl x4
Grim Lavamancer x3 (x4 on the "B" team)
Lightning Bolt x4
Sylvan Library x2
Swords to Plowshares x3
Punishing Fire x3
Arid Mesa x4
Grove of the Burnwillows x4
Plateau x3 (Sacred Foundry x2)
Savannah x2 (Temple Garden)
Tiaga x2 (Stomping Ground)
Forest, Mountain, Plains 1 each.
The real question is what will everyone else be bringing. I've been doing a lot of research, and think I have a good preview of what the event will look like. I think the largest list to show up will be far and away Fish, making up as much as 10-12% of the field, and having a +.5 conversion rate. This is good news for me, as I already have a good match up on the list. It's possible that some of the best Fish pilots around are going to be there, so this conversion rate may be desceptivly low.
I think the next largest group will be Dredge/Ant, Bant, Zoo, making up about 7% of the field each. I can face dredge with tech, but Ant is almost always a coin flip. I have a good mirror from the main list choices, and Bant is a bit of an unknown for me. I'll have to check on that, but with it's poor conversion rate, there is a good chance the field will take care of it for me.
The next largest group should be Goblins/Burn, Thresh, and Countertop, at about 5-6% each. Goblins/Burn is a good match up for me, but Thresh and Countertop are tough games. Thresh's low conversion rate should take care of it self, but Countertop converts at better the +1.25, so I'm going to have to devote some side board tech to this match. A number of other lists are bound to show up. Loam, Land, Belcher, will be there in small percentages, but only Loam has a high enough conversion rate to be a concern. Loam, and Dragon Stompy may be the sleepers of the event. We will just have to see. The rest of the field will be 1-2% lists, and rogue stuff.
This field presents some tough choices for sideboard consideration, because you just can't be ready for everything. For instance, the high conversions rates for mill out strategies like Painter, makes Gaea's Blessing worth considering for a single slot, despite the lists low chance of being seen. This type of combo out is very popular with several of the Virginia Legacy teams, which should be showing up in force. Pithing Needle is an auto include, as it helps in so many match ups, it turns off land abilities, handles planeswalkers, and turns off Top. I think this is going to be a 4 of, but I may need to adjust the number.
I think the Dark Horse of the event will be AggroLoam, so I think some mix of Crypt and Relic is a must. This will also help me with the Drege and Reanimator list which are sure to show up, even if in small numbers. Next up on the hit parade I expect is CounterTop. Luckily I've had the opportunity to test against this deck, and some very competent pilots for the better part of 6 months, unfortunatly beating it is still a bit of a challenge, so this is going to be a major board consideration. I already have Needles, which may go in against this deck. I think a mix of 2 Shushers, and 2 REB's gives me a solid leg up against countertop, and other blue control decks. The last big threat will be Zoo, and I already have a great main list mirror, so I'm not going to worry about it in the board. My last slots I think I'll put to Canonist, to help fight combo elves, ANT, Belcher, and Storm based becks. Both of thesee have been on the rise recently, and have low barriers to entry for Legacy.
With all this in mind, I'm going to run the following board;
Gaea's BlessingWhile I think that 20 lands is the way to go when running the A team, I'm a little concerned about the land mix. My testing this week will focus on replacing a single Grove with a Wooded foothills. I'm thinking this may be the way to go.
Relic of Progenitus x2
Vexing Shusher x2
Red Elemental Blasts x2
Ethersworn Canonist x3